Merchandise and Service Trade Deviations During COVID-19: A Performance Comparison Between India and China

The current study compares trade performance between India and China during COVID period (January–December 2020). The merchandise trade and commercial service exports and imports from both countries were obtained from the official World Trade Organization website to compare the output (deviation of actual from projected during COVID-19) of India and China’s foreign trade with the rest of the world. The present study employs models of autoregressive integrated moving average using a three-step model creation process. As per the results obtained, we can conclude that India is behind China in achieving the amount of merchandise exports and imports in relation to the output of its previous years, while China’s variance between expected and real is relatively lower. When comparing service exports and imports, it can be found that the gap between service exports is not much, but in the case of service imports, China’s deviation from India is much greater.