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Background  Existing equations for prediction of atrial fibrillation ( AF ) have been developed and validated in white and African‐American populations. Whether these models adequately predict  AF  in more racially and ethnically diverse populations is unknown.    Methods and Results  We studied 6663 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without  AF  at baseline (2000–2002) enrolled in the Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis ( MESA ). Of these, 38% were non‐Hispanic whites, 28% non‐Hispanic African Americans, 22% Hispanics, and 12% Chinese Americans.  AF  during follow‐up was ascertained from hospitalization discharge codes through 2012. Information collected at baseline was used to calculate predicted 5‐year risk of  AF  using the previously published simple  CHARGE ‐ AF  model, which only includes clinical variables, and a biomarker‐enriched  CHARGE ‐ AF  model, which also considers levels of circulating N‐terminal of the prohormone B‐type natriuretic peptide and C‐reactive protein. For comparison purposes, we also assessed performance of the 10‐year Framingham  AF  model. During a mean follow‐up of 10.2 years, 351 cases of  AF  were identified. The C‐statistic of the  CHARGE ‐ AF  models were 0.779 (95%  CI , 0.744–0.814) for the simple model and 0.825 (95%  CI , 0.791–0.860) for the biomarker‐enriched model. Calibration was adequate in the biomarker‐enriched model (χ 2 =7.9;  P =0.55), but suboptimal in the simple model (χ 2 =25.6;  P =0.002). In contrast, the 10‐year Framingham score had a C‐statistic (95%  CI ) of 0.746 (0.720–0.771) and showed poor calibration (χ 2 =57.4;  P <0.0001).    Conclusion  The  CHARGE ‐ AF  risk models adequately predicted 5‐year  AF  risk in a large multiethnic cohort. These models could be useful to select high‐risk individuals for  AF  screening programs or for primary prevention trials in diverse populations.

Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially Diverse Cohort: The Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis ( MESA )