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Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars' wet-to-dry transition remainsunknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution ofclimate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-workedlandforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers overtime. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplifiedmeltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, asthe result of $\gtrsim$10 K global cooling, from global average surfacetemperature (T) $\ge$ 268 K to T $\sim$ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouseeffect. In other words, river-forming climates on Early Mars were warm and wetfirst, and cold and wet later. Surprisingly, analysis of the greenhouse effectwithin our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that thisshift was primarily driven by waning non-CO2 radiative forcing, and not changesin CO2 radiative forcing.

Changing spatial distribution of water flow charts major change in Mars' greenhouse effect