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Aims/Introduction  We aimed to investigate the long‐term trajectory of general adiposity assessed by the body mass index ( BMI ) before the onset of type 2 diabetes in  J apanese individuals.    Materials and Methods  We retrospectively examined data on 1,553  J apanese men without diabetes. Mean  BMI  and incident cases of diabetes (diabetes indicated by fasting glucose concentrations ≥7.0 mmol/L, a self‐reported history of clinician‐diagnosed diabetes, or glycated hemoglobin ≥6.5% (≥48 mmol/mol) were assessed on an annual basis over a 10‐year period after the baseline examination.    Results  Mean (standard deviation)  BMI  at the time of diagnosis was 24.4 kg/m 2  (3.1 kg/m 2 ) among cases of diabetes ( n  = 191). An increasingly high  BMI  was associated with the early stage of the disease development, such as an 8‐ to 10‐year prediagnosis period; individuals who developed diabetes experienced a prolonged and stable elevated  BMI  of ≥24.4 kg/m 2  over the 8 years before the diagnosis of diabetes. The mean  BMI  among the non‐cases of diabetes did not exceed 23.2 kg/m 2  throughout the period.    Conclusions  These results suggested that Japanese men who eventually developed diabetes during the 10‐year observation period were not characterized as obese, but had stable high‐normal  BMI s before the onset of diabetes. Previous evidence showed that values for glycemic markers rapidly increased before the development of diabetes; however, the present study showed a slight gain in  BMI  in the earlier stage of the natural history of diabetes followed by a prolonged period of overweight.

Trajectory of body mass index before the development of type 2 diabetes in Japanese men: Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 15