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Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050
Author(s) -
Ryan Sadie J.,
Carlson Colin J.,
Tesla Blanka,
Bonds Matthew H.,
Ngonghala Calistus N.,
Mordecai Erin A.,
Johnson Leah R.,
Murdock Courtney C.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.15384
Subject(s) - zika virus , climate change , pandemic , transmission (telecommunications) , outbreak , global warming , geography , covid-19 , natural resource economics , environmental protection , virology , ecology , medicine , virus , engineering , biology , economics , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , electrical engineering
Abstract In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature‐dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid‐century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst‐case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.