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A noninferiority design for a delayed calcineurin inhibitor substitution trial in kidney transplantation
Author(s) -
Nickerson Peter W.,
Balshaw Robert,
Wiebe Chris,
Ho Julie,
Gibson Ian W.,
Bridges Nancy D.,
Rush David N.,
Heeger Peter S.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
american journal of transplantation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.89
H-Index - 188
eISSN - 1600-6143
pISSN - 1600-6135
DOI - 10.1111/ajt.16311
Subject(s) - medicine , calcineurin , kidney transplantation , transplantation , urology , substitution (logic) , oncology , clinical trial , pharmacology , intensive care medicine , computer science , programming language
Improving long‐term kidney transplant outcomes requires novel treatment strategies, including delayed calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) substitution, tested using informative trial designs. An alternative approach to the usual superiority‐based trial is a noninferiority trial design that tests whether an investigational agent is not unacceptably worse than standard of care. An informative noninferiority design, with biopsy‐proven acute rejection (BPAR) as the endpoint, requires determination of a prespecified, evidence‐based noninferiority margin for BPAR. No such information is available for delayed CNI substitution in kidney transplantation. Herein we analyzed data from recent kidney transplant trials of CNI withdrawal and “real world” CNI‐ based standard of care, containing subjects with well‐documented evidence of immune quiescence at 6 months posttransplant—ideal candidates for delayed CNI substitution. Our analysis indicates an evidence‐based noninferiority margin of 13.8% for the United States Food and Drug Administration's composite definition of BPAR between 6 and 24 months posttransplant. Sample size estimation determined that ~225 randomized subjects would be required to evaluate noninferiority for this primary clinical efficacy endpoint, and superiority for a renal function safety endpoint. Our findings provide the basis for future delayed CNI substitution noninferiority trials, thereby increasing the likelihood they will provide clinically implementable results and achieve regulatory approval.