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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls
Author(s) -
Vocht Frank,
McQuire Cheryl,
Brennan Alan,
Egan Matt,
Angus Colin,
Kaner Eileen,
Beard Emma,
Brown Jamie,
De Angelis Daniela,
Carter Nick,
Murray Barbara,
Dukes Rachel,
Greenwood Elizabeth,
Holden Susan,
Jago Russell,
Hickman Matthew
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
addiction
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.424
H-Index - 193
eISSN - 1360-0443
pISSN - 0965-2140
DOI - 10.1111/add.15002
Subject(s) - natural experiment , psychological intervention , causal inference , poison control , closure (psychology) , injury prevention , occupational safety and health , suicide prevention , driving under the influence , human factors and ergonomics , interrupted time series analysis , counterfactual conditional , psychology , medicine , actuarial science , environmental health , counterfactual thinking , business , social psychology , economics , psychiatry , econometrics , statistics , pathology , market economy , mathematics
Background and Aims Given the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision‐making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework. Design Three natural experiments. Setting and participants Three English local areas of 1000–15 000 people each. Intervention and comparator The case study interventions were (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). Trends in outcomes were compared with synthetic counterfactuals created using Bayesian structural time–series. Measurements Time–series data were obtained on emergency department admissions, ambulance call‐outs and alcohol‐related crime at the Lower or Middle Super Output geographical aggregation level. Findings Closure of the nightclub led to temporary 4‐month reductions in antisocial behaviour (−18%; 95% credible interval − 37%, −4%), with no change in other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub did not lead to measurable changes in outcomes. The new licensing guidance led to small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (nine of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with an increase in domestic violence of two incidents per month. Conclusions The impact of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be evaluated using a causal inference framework. Local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing may have a positive impact on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area.