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A utility of model input uncertainty analysis in transferring tobacco control‐related economic evidence to countries with scarce resources: results from the EQUIPT study
Author(s) -
Németh Bertalan,
Kulchaitanaroaj Puttarin,
LesterGeorge Adam,
Huic Mirjana,
Coyle Kathryn,
Coyle Doug,
Pokhrel Subhash,
Kaló Zoltán
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
addiction
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.424
H-Index - 193
eISSN - 1360-0443
pISSN - 0965-2140
DOI - 10.1111/add.14092
Subject(s) - tobacco control , population , econometrics , computer science , statistics , environmental health , medicine , economics , mathematics , public health , nursing
Abstract Aims To inform the transferability of tobacco control‐related economic evidence to resource‐poor countries. Methods We ran a univariate sensitivity analysis on a return on investment (ROI) model, the European study on Quantifying Utility of Investment in Protection from Tobacco model (EQUIPTMOD), to identify key input values to which the ROI estimates were sensitive. The EQUIPTMOD used a Markov‐based state transition model to estimate the ROI of several tobacco control interventions in five European countries (England, Germany, Spain, Hungary and the Netherlands). Base case ROI estimates were obtained through average values of model inputs (throughout the five countries), which were then replaced one at a time with country‐specific values. Tornado diagrams were used to evaluate the significance of sensitivity, defined as a ≥ 10% difference in ROI estimates from the base case estimates. Results The ROI estimates were sensitive to 18 (of 46) input values. Examples of model inputs to which ROI estimates were sensitive included: smoking rate, costs of smoking‐related diseases (e.g. lung cancer) and general population attributes. Conclusion Countries that have limited research time and other resources can adapt EQUIPTMOD to their own settings by choosing to collect data on a small number of model inputs. EQUIPTMOD can therefore facilitate transfer of tobacco control related economic evidence to new jurisdictions.