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China's Emergence: Prospects, Opportunities and Challenges[Note 1. We are grateful to Dong He for sharing his ...]
Author(s) -
Boltho Andrea,
Dadush Uri,
Otsubo Shigeru
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
asian economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.345
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1467-8381
pISSN - 1351-3958
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8381.00015
Subject(s) - china , economics , shock (circulatory) , international trade , development economics , international economics , economy , political science , medicine , law
Barring major disruptions, China will become the world's most dynamic growth pole, and could become one of the world's largest economies, if not the largest, by the year 2020. Industrial countries, especially Japan and the United States, are expected to benefit, while many developing countries may be put under competitive pressure. A simulation analysis shows that in the long run China will be resilient to adverse external developments, but in the short term, a shock such as loss of most favoured nation status in the US market could threaten the macroeconomic stability so important to its continued economic opening. Preserving open trade relations is in the best interest of both China and the United States.