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Repeated predictions that vector-borne disease prevalence will increase with global warming are usually based on univariate models. To accommodate the full range of constraints, the present-day distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) was matched statistically to current climatic variables, to provide a multivariate description of present-day areas of disease risk. This was then applied to outputs of a general circulation model that predicts how climatic variables may change in the future, and future distributions of TBEv were predicted for them. The expected summer rise in temperature and decrease in moisture appears to drive the distribution of TBEv into higher-latitude and higher-altitude regions progressively through the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The final toe-hold in the 2080s may be confined to a small part of Scandinavia, including new foci in southern Finland. The reason for this apparent contraction of the range of TBEv is that its transmission cycles depend on a particular pattern of tick seasonal dynamics, which may be disrupted by climate change. The observed marked increase in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in most parts of Europe since 1993 may be due to non-biological causes, such as political and sociological changes.

Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change