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With the development of Shanghai’s social economy and the continuous transformation of the three major industries, Shanghai’s energy structure will also undergo corresponding changes. In order to study the proportion of electricity in energy consumption in the future, this paper predicts the consumption of electric energy and non-electric energy in Shanghai based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and analyses impulse response analysis and variance. The result of the experiment shows that development of Shanghai’s energy consumption structure will still keep in low carbon and electrification trend. From the perspective of the terminal energy consumption structure, the growth rate of power consumption will exceed the non-electric energy consumption one, and the proportion of electrification will be further increased.

Energy consumption forecast of different industries under the social and economic transformation