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Oil and gas field development are characterized by high risks and uncertainties, thus making relevant risk evaluation is an essential decision to reduce development losses. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of traditional evaluation methods, combined with a gas field development example, the Real Option method is used to break through the “static” evaluation of the Net Present Value of traditional assessment, and the uncertainty factor is taken as an active impact factor, which the bigger to may excavate greater result. The benefits are calculated by numerical simulation using Monte Carlo Simulation method to establish a Real Option model based on volatility estimation. The evaluation results show that the Monte Carlo Simulation uses the correlation between the indicators to establish a Net Present Value model, which can comprehensively consider a variety of factors, and can also obtain the corresponding cumulative probability. The results are more objective and more realistic, and more reasonable evaluation.

Based-estimated volatility Real Option evaluation method in drilling exploration and development