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The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is intended to limit global warming well below 2°C. This paper is aimed to assess the potential key impact of 2°C and 4°C global warming on the characteristics of precipitation extremes over Indonesia. For this purpose, the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) scenario is dynamically downscaled using the RegCM modelling system. The results show that under these two global warming level, total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) will decrease in most regions. Consistently, the dry spell duration (CDD, consecutive dry days) is projected to increase. On the other hand, the frequency and the intensity of precipitation extremes (R50mm and RX1day) are projected with mix increase and decrease tendency. Seasonally, the contrast changing of PRCPTOT is projected. PRCPTOT tends to decrease during dry season (June-July-August, JJA) and tends to increase during wet season (December-January-February, DJF). The similar pattern is found for other indices e.g. CDD, R50mm and RX1day. In general, changes at 4°C global warming are statistically more significant and more intensified compared to that at 2°C. Our findings suggest the benefit of limiting global warming at a lower level.

Indonesian Climate under 2°C and 4°C Global Warming: Precipitation Extremes