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Unabated coal power in India must be phased out by mid-century to achieveglobal climate targets under the Paris Agreement. Here we estimate the costs ofhybrid power plants - lithium-ion battery storage with wind and solar PV - toreplace coal generation. We design least cost mixes of these technologies tosupply stylized baseload and load-following generation profiles in three Indianstates - Karnataka, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Our analysis shows thatavailability of low cost capital, solar PV capital costs of at least $250/kW,and battery storage capacity costs at least 50% cheaper than current levelswill be required to phase out existing coal power plants. Phaseout by 2040requires a 6% annual decline in the cost of hybrid systems over the next twodecades. We find that replacing coal generation with hybrid systems 99% of thehours over multiple decades is roughly 40% cheaper than 100% replacement,indicating a key role for other low cost grid flexibility mechanisms to helphasten coal phaseout. Solar PV is more suited to pairing with short durationstorage than wind power. Overall, our results describe the challengingtechnological and policy advances needed to achieve the temperature goals ofthe Paris Agreement.

Sustained cost declines in solar PV and battery storage needed to eliminate coal generation in India