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Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective equivalences betweengreenhouse gases, currently require a subjective, arbitrary choice of timehorizon. Here, we propose a novel framework that uses a specific temperaturegoal to calculate the time horizon that aligns with scenarios achieving thattemperature goal. We analyze the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeSpecial Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C Scenario Database to find that timehorizons that align with the 1.5 and 2 C global warming goals of the ParisAgreement are 24 [90% prediction interval: 7, 41] and 58 [90% PI: 41, 74] yearsrespectively. We then use these time horizons to quantify time-dependentemission metrics with methane as our main example. We find that the GlobalWarming Potential values that align with the 1.5 and 2 C goals are GWP1.5 C =75 [90% PI: 54, 107] and GWP2 C = 42 [90% PI: 35, 54]; for the GlobalTemperature change Potential they are GTP1.5 C = 41 [90% PI: 16, 102] and GTP2C = 9 [90% PI: 7, 16]. The most commonly used time horizon, 100 years,underestimates methane emission metrics by 34-38% relative to the values wecalculate that align with the 2 C goal and 63-87% relative to the 1.5 C goal.To best align emission metrics with the 1.5 C goal of the Paris Agreement, werecommend a 24-year time horizon, using 2045 as the endpoint time, with itsassociated GWP1.5 C = 75 and GTP1.5 C = 41.

Global temperature goals should determine the time horizons for greenhouse gas emission metrics