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In the strength design of sleeve joint structure, manufacturing tolerance and fit clearance are generally ignored. The load of connecting screw is usually calculated by the method of linear distribution. The contact force between screw and cabin is usually simulated by deterministic finite element method. The command flow of probability analysis for typical circular section socket structure is developed based on APDL. The uncertainty of manufacturing tolerance and fit clearance for socket structure is defined as random input variables, such as the cabin diameter, cabin hole position, and cabin aperture and so on. Monte Carlo method is used in probability analysis, and the input variables are random uniform distribution. The analysis results show that the transfer load of screws is redistributed under the probability analysis compared with the finite element analysis, and some screws bear larger load, while the nearby screws bear smaller load. At the same time, the load transferred by screw is not only affected by its own variables, but also by others. The probability analysis method can fully consider the influence of manufacturing tolerance of the structure, and evaluate the structural strength margin more accurately. It can not only prevent the harm caused by uncertainty of random manufacturing tolerance, but also prevent over design caused by conservative method.

Research on Probability Analysis Technology of Circular Section Cabin Socket Structure Based on APDL