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With the data from the official website of the World Health Organization, this study calculated the transmission coefficient and other time-varying parameters to analyze the current epidemic situation in the US based on the SIR epidemic model. The reasons for the failure of the first wave of the epidemic were given from the perspectives of protection measures and the actual reproductive number. At the same time, the SIR model was improved based on time-varying parameters-β, and predicted the future development of the epidemic. The results showed that the actual reproductive number of the day fluctuated between 1.5 and 2 in May and June, but the various regions successively implemented the unblocking policies, which led to the crisis of the epidemic again. In this study, a time-varying parameter-β was introduced to predict that the outbreak in the US would turn around in late August. However, the trend of the epidemic is not optimistic, the US should invest more in developing COVID-19 vaccines.

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 in the US based on the time-varying parameters SIR model