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Value at Risk (VaR) is a measurement of the value of a risk that estimates the maximum potential loss that may occur in the future within a certain period and a certain level of trust. VaR is widely used in financial data, but has not received the same treatment in agriculture. The risks associated with price fluctuations are one of the most obvious and well-studied aspects of price risk management. In this study, analyze Value at Risk (VaR) based on the GARCH family volatility model for agricultural commodities, especially harvested dry grain at 95% confidence intervals. This study uses the price of harvested unhulled rice at the producer level of Pemalang District from August 2015 to July 2018. Based on the nature of the data, the appropriate model used is the MA (1) – GARCH (1,1) model. The results of this study indicate that the longer the time to invest, the greater the risk it creates.

GARCH-family for measuring price fluctuation risk of harvested dry grain in Pemalang district