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Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of oursocial behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across differentregions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity ofhuman contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose atheoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the formof a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensivemechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. Theexpression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on thespecific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and theheterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopicmechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobilitypatterns reported in the literature.

Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility