Open AccessHurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability
Author(s) -
Wenchang Yang,
Tsang-Yen Hsieh,
G. A. Vecchi
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2108397118
Subject(s) - annual cycle , climatology , climate change , climate model , tropical cyclone , environmental science , water cycle , climate sensitivity , atmospheric sciences , biology , geology , ecology
Significance Atlantic hurricanes have a sharp annual cycle with more than half count concentrated in only 3 mo of August to October, which is, however, usually not captured by traditional tropical cyclone (TC) genesis theory. We find that this issue can be addressed if we take into account variation of pre-TC vortex seeds and incorporate it into a two-stage TC development: emerging of pre-TC seeds and development of TCs from seeds, with the latter described by TC genesis probability. The two processes working together lead to the sharp annual cycle of Atlantic hurricanes. We also demonstrate that TC annual cycles from various ocean basins can be unified and understood in the new framework.