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Multivariate short‐term rainfall prediction
Author(s) -
Johnson Edward R.,
Bras Rafael L.
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr016i001p00173
Subject(s) - storm , term (time) , multivariate statistics , variance (accounting) , environmental science , meteorology , event (particle physics) , climatology , statistics , mathematics , geology , geography , physics , accounting , quantum mechanics , business
Accurate hydrologie forecasting for basins with a short response time depends on the ability to predict quantitative rainfall rates. This study develops a stochastic model for short‐term (of the order of 1 hour or less) rainfall prediction. The model simultaneously predicts rainfall rates at multiple locations and for multiple values of prediction lead. All model parameters are estimated solely from telemetered rain gage data for the event being predicted. The model includes velocity and direction of storm movement as explicit parameters. The storm arrival time at each predicted point is likewise an explicit parameter, which is estimated for each location. The mean rainfall rate is not modeled as being either homogeneous spatially or stationary (constant with time). Likewise, the variance of rainfall is nonhomogeneous and non‐stationary.