Open AccessGreenhouse Gas Concentration and Volcanic Eruptions Controlled the Variability of Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over the Last Millennium
Author(s) -
Zhang Xuanze,
Peng Shushi,
Ciais Philippe,
Wang YingPing,
Silver Jeremy D.,
Piao Shilong,
Rayner Peter J.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.03
H-Index - 58
ISSN - 1942-2466
DOI - 10.1029/2018ms001566
Subject(s) - environmental science , primary production , atmospheric sciences , climatology , greenhouse gas , volcano , carbon cycle , climate change , forcing (mathematics) , biome , centennial , ecosystem , geology , ecology , oceanography , seismology , biology , medicine , pathology
The terrestrial net biome production (NBP) is considered as one of the major drivers of interannual variation in atmospheric CO 2 levels. However, the determinants of variability in NBP under the background climate (i.e., preindustrial conditions) remain poorly understood, especially on decadal‐to‐centennial timescales. We analyzed 1,000‐year simulations spanning 850‐1,849 from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and found that the variability in NBP and heterotrophic respiration (RH) were largely driven by fluctuations in the net primary production (NPP) and carbon turnover rates in response to climate variability. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, variability in NBP was dominated by variation in NPP, while variability in RH was driven by variation in turnover rates. However, on centennial timescales (100‐1,000 years), the RH variability became more tightly coupled to that of NPP. The NBP variability on centennial timescales was low, due to the near cancellation of NPP and NPP‐driven RH changes arising from climate internal variability and external forcings: preindustrial greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, land use changes, orbital change, and solar activity. Factorial experiments showed that globally on centennial timescales, the forcing of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations were the largest contributor (51%) to variations in both NPP and RH, followed by volcanic eruptions impacting NPP (25%) and RH (31%). Our analysis of the carbon‐cycle suggests that geoengineering solutions by injection of stratospheric aerosols might be ineffective on longer timescales.