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Large socioeconomic impact of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather low potential predictability (PP) of the seasonal ISM, contributed significantly by “internal,” interannual variability was considered insurmountable. Here we show that the internal variability contributed by the ISM subseasonal (synoptic + intraseasonal) fluctuations, so far considered chaotic, is partly predictable as found to be tied to slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Niño and Southern Oscillation). This provides a scientific basis for predictability of the ISM rainfall beyond the conventional estimates of PP. We establish a much higher actual limit of PP ( r ∼0.82) through an extensive reforecast experiment (1,920 years of simulation) by improving two major physics in a global coupled climate model, which raises a hope for a very reliable dynamical seasonal ISM forecasting in the near future.

Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit