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We characterize long‐term disease dynamics from cognitively healthy to dementia using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.    Methods  We apply a latent time joint mixed‐effects model to 16 cognitive, functional, biomarker, and imaging outcomes in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for estimation and inference.    Results  We find good concordance between latent time and diagnosis. Change in amyloid positron emission tomography shows a moderate correlation with change in cerebrospinal fluid tau ( ρ  = 0.310) and phosphorylated tau ( ρ  = 0.294) and weaker correlation with amyloid‐β 42 ( ρ  = 0.176). In comparison to amyloid positron emission tomography, change in volumetric magnetic resonance imaging summaries is more strongly correlated with cognitive measures (e.g.,  ρ  = 0.731 for ventricles and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale). The average disease trends are consistent with the amyloid cascade hypothesis.    Discussion  The latent time joint mixed‐effects model can (1) uncover long‐term disease trends; (2) estimate the sequence of pathological abnormalities; and (3) provide subject‐specific prognostic estimates of the time until onset of symptoms.

Bayesian latent time joint mixed‐effects model of progression in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative