Current and future burden of venous thrombosis: Not simply predictable

Essentials The incidence of venous thrombosis has remained stable over the past decade. Risk factors and diagnostic and prophylaxis strategies are determinants of the overall incidence. Given current trends of the determinants, we are making progress in reducing the burden. More progress can be made by implementing validated risk assessment models.Venous thrombosis is a major contributor to the global disease burden. In this review we aim to answer two important questions: (1) are we making progress in reducing this disease burden and (2) how can we further improve? To answer these questions, we first evaluated the disease burden, that is, the incidence of first venous thrombosis over the past decade(s) and discuss its most important determinants. We found that the incidence of first venous thrombosis remained relatively unchanged, despite an increase in risk factor prevalence and a rise in identification of subsegmental pulmonary emboli due to enhanced image quality and utilization. This is, however, balanced by improved thromboprophylaxis strategies, resulting in an overall unchanged venous thrombosis incidence. We can further improve by developing, validating, and implementing risk assessment strategies, allowing us to identify persons at high or low risk in whom thromboprophylaxis can be provided or withheld, respectively.