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We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998–present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979–1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979–1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land‐only observations, in this cold‐to‐warm transition, remarkably, a near‐exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979–1997 compared with 1960–1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall