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Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments
Author(s) -
Lin HuiLin,
Liu LonMu,
Tseng YiHeng,
Su YuWen
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
international journal of tourism research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.155
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1522-1970
pISSN - 1099-2340
DOI - 10.1002/jtr.779
Subject(s) - tourism , outlier , time series , affect (linguistics) , geography , econometrics , regional science , economics , statistics , psychology , mathematics , communication , archaeology
Abstract In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to find events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We find that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non‐recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we find that the exchange rate influences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.