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Out‐of‐sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie
Author(s) -
Cooke Roger M,
Wittmann Marion E,
Lodge David M,
Rothlisberger John D,
Rutherford Edward S,
Zhang Hongyan,
Mason Doran M
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
integrated environmental assessment and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.665
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1551-3793
pISSN - 1551-3777
DOI - 10.1002/ieam.1559
Subject(s) - weighting , hypophthalmichthys , calibration , sample (material) , fish <actinopterygii> , decision maker , statistics , silver carp , fishery , environmental science , computer science , mathematics , operations research , chemistry , biology , medicine , chromatography , radiology
Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] and silver carp [ H. molitrix ]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions, with weights derived from performance on a set of calibration variables from the experts' field, exhibits greater statistical accuracy and greater informativeness than simple averaging with equal weights. New methods of cross validation are applied and suggest that performance characteristics relative to equal weighting could be predicted with a small number (1–2) of calibration variables. The performance‐based decision maker is somewhat degraded on out‐of‐sample prediction, but remained superior to the equal weight decision maker in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:522–528. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.