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The groundwater flow system in the Culebra Dolomite Member (Culebra) of the Permian Rustler Formation is a potential radionuclide release pathway from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the only deep geological repository for transuranic waste in the United States. In early conceptual models of the Culebra, groundwater levels were not expected to fluctuate markedly, except in response to long‐term climatic changes, with response times on the order of hundreds to thousands of years. Recent groundwater pressures measured in monitoring wells record more than 25 m of drawdown. The fluctuations are attributed to pumping activities at a privately owned well that may be associated with the demand of the Permian Basin hydrocarbon industry for water. The unprecedented magnitude of drawdown provides an opportunity to quantitatively assess the influence of unplanned anthropogenic forcings near the WIPP. Spatially variable realizations of Culebra saturated hydraulic conductivity and specific storage were used to develop groundwater flow models to estimate a pumping rate for the private well and investigate its effect on advective transport. Simulated drawdown shows reasonable agreement with observations (average Model Efficiency coefficient = 0.7). Steepened hydraulic gradients associated with the pumping reduce estimates of conservative particle travel times across the domain by one half and shift the intersection of the average particle track with the compliance boundary by more than 2 km. The value of the transient simulations conducted for this study lies in their ability to (a) improve understanding of the Culebra groundwater flow system and (b) challenge the notion of time‐invariant land use in the vicinity of the WIPP.

Anthropogenic influences on groundwater in the vicinity of a long‐lived radioactive waste repository