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Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool
Author(s) -
Genest Christian,
McConway Kevin J.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980090106
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , bayesian probability , computer science , expert opinion , econometrics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , medicine , intensive care medicine
Abstract A standard approach to the combination of probabilistic opinions involves taking a weighted linear average of the individuals distributions. This paper reviews some of the possible interpretations that have been proposed for these weights in the literature on expert use. Several paradigms for selecting weights are also considered. Special attention is devoted to the Bayesian mechanism used for updating expert weights in the face of new information. An asymptotic result is proved which highlights the importance of choosing the initial weights carefully.