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Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity
Author(s) -
Joseph Djenaba A.,
Meester Reinier G. S.,
Zauber Ann G.,
Manninen Diane L.,
Winges Linda,
Dong Fred B.,
Peaker Brandy,
van Ballegooijen Marjolein
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
cancer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.052
H-Index - 304
eISSN - 1097-0142
pISSN - 0008-543X
DOI - 10.1002/cncr.30070
Subject(s) - colonoscopy , medicine , colorectal cancer , population , colorectal cancer screening , cancer screening , cancer , environmental health
BACKGROUND In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need. METHODS The Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014‐2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed. RESULTS If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy‐only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed. CONCLUSIONS The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479–86 . © 2016 American Cancer Society .