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The current retrospective study involving a total of 1607 patients was designed to identify clinical and molecular variables that were predictive of inferior myelofibrosis‐free survival (MFS) in WHO‐defined essential thrombocythemia (ET), utilizing three independent patient cohorts: University of Florence, Italy ( n  = 718); Mayo Clinic, USA ( n  = 479) and Policlinico Gemelli, Catholic University, Rome, Italy ( n  = 410). The Florence patient cohort was first examined to identify independent risk factors for MFS, which included age > 60 years (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3–4.9), male sex (2.1, 1.2–3.9), palpable splenomegaly (2.1, 1.2–3.9),  CALR  1/1‐like or  MPL  mutation (3.4, 1.9–6.1) and  JAK2 V617F variant allele frequency > 35% (4.2, 1.6–10.8). Subsequently, an operational molecular risk category was developed and validated in the other two cohorts from Mayo Clinic and Rome: “high molecular risk” category included patients with  JAK2 V617F VAF >35%,  CALR  type 1/1‐like or  MPL  mutations; all other driver mutation profiles were assigned to “low molecular risk” category. The former, compared to the latter molecular risk category, displayed significantly higher risk of fibrotic transformation: Florence cohort with respective fibrotic transformation risk rates of 8% vs. 1.2% at 10 years and 33% vs. 8% at 20 years ( p  < 0.001; HR 6.1; 95% CI 3.2–11.7); Mayo Cohort, 16% vs. 7% at 10 years and 44% vs. 25% at 20 years ( p  < 0.001; HR 2.5; 95% CI 1.6–4.1); and Rome cohort 7.8% vs. 4.6% at 10 years and 31.2% vs. 7.1% at 20 years ( p  = 0.007, HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.3–5.8). The present study provides practically useful risk signals for fibrotic transformation in ET and facilitates identification of patients who require close monitoring and appropriate counseling.

Clinical and molecular predictors of fibrotic progression in essential thrombocythemia: A multicenter study involving 1607 patients