Open AccessProspects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity
Author(s) -
Stevens Bjorn,
Sherwood Steven C.,
Bony Sandrine,
Webb Mark J.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
earth's future
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.641
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2328-4277
DOI - 10.1002/2016ef000376
Subject(s) - sensitivity (control systems) , range (aeronautics) , climate change , climate sensitivity , climate science , economics , mathematical economics , computer science , climate model , geology , engineering , oceanography , aerospace engineering , electronic engineering
The concept of Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ( ECS ) is reviewed. A particular problem in quantifying plausible bounds for ECS has been how to account for all of the diverse lines of relevant scientific evidence. It is argued that developing and refuting physical storylines (hypotheses) for values outside any proposed range has the potential to better constrain these bounds and to help articulate the science needed to narrow the range further. A careful reassessment of all important lines of evidence supporting these storylines, their limitations, and the assumptions required to combine them is therefore required urgently.