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We studied the weekly number and the growth decline rates of COVID-19 deathsof the period from October 31, 2022 to February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding thatthat COVID 19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holiday weeks fromDecember 16, 2002 to January 5, 2023, and it was definitely trending downward,returning to the same number of deaths of the end of October 2022, in the firstweek February 2023. During this period of 15 weeks, that wave caused a numberof deaths as large as 8,526. Its percentage average growth rate was +7.89deaths per week (10 weeks), while the percentage average weekly decline ratewas -12.32 (5 weeks). At the time of writing of this paper, Italy wasexperiencing a new COVID 19 wave, with the latest 7 weekly bulletins availableat that date (from October 26, 2023 to December 14, 2023) showing that thedeaths had climbed from 148 to 322. The percentage weekly growth rate had risenby +14.08 deaths, on average. In the hypothesis that this 2023-2024 wave willhave a total duration similar to that of 2022 2023, with a comparable extensionof both the growing period and of the decline period and similar growth declinerates, a prediction can be cast regarding the number of COVID 19 deaths of theperiod from the end of October 2023 to the beginning of February 2024. Theyshould be in the neighbourhood of 4100,4200. A preliminary assessment of thisforecast, based on 11 of the 15 weeks of the period, has confirmed the validityof the approach.

Drawing a parallel between the trend of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the winters of 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 in Italy, with a prediction