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The abundance of faint dwarf galaxies is determined by the underlyingpopulation of low-mass dark matter (DM) halos and the efficiency of galaxyformation in these systems. Here, we quantify potential galaxy formation and DMconstraints from future dwarf satellite galaxy surveys. We generate satellitepopulations using a suite of Milky Way (MW)-mass cosmological zoom-insimulations and an empirical galaxy--halo connection model, and assesssensitivity to galaxy formation and DM signals when marginalizing overgalaxy--halo connection uncertainties. We find that a survey of all satellitesaround one MW-mass host can constrain a galaxy formation cutoff at peak virialmasses of $M_{50}=10^8~M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ at the $1\sigma$ level; however, atail toward low $M_{50}$ prevents a $2\sigma$ measurement. In this scenario,combining hosts with differing bright satellite abundances significantlyreduces uncertainties on $M_{50}$ at the $1\sigma$ level, but the $2\sigma$tail toward low $M_{50}$ persists. We project that observations of one (two)complete satellite populations can constrain warm DM models with$m_{\mathrm{WDM}}\approx 10~\mathrm{keV}$ ($20~\mathrm{keV}$). Subhalo massfunction (SHMF) suppression can be constrained to $\approx 70\%$, $60\%$, and$50\%$ that in CDM at peak virial masses of $10^8$, $10^9$, and$10^{10}~M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$, respectively; SHMF enhancement constraints areweaker ($\approx 20$, $4$, and $2$ times that in CDM, respectively) due togalaxy--halo connection degeneracies. These results motivate searches for faintdwarf galaxies beyond the MW and indicate that ongoing missions like Euclid andupcoming facilities including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy GraceRoman Space Telescope will probe new galaxy formation and DM physics.

Forecasts for Galaxy Formation and Dark Matter Constraints from Dwarf Galaxy Surveys