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This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metricdesigned to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card infootball. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, themodel demonstrates improved performance with additional features and anexpanded dataset. Analysis of FIFA World Cup 2022 data validates the model'sefficacy in providing insights into team and player fouling tactics, aligningwith actual defensive performance. The xB model addresses a gap in foulingefficiency examination, emphasizing defensive strategies which oftenoverlooked. Further enhancements are suggested through the incorporation ofcomprehensive data and spatial features.

Investigating Fouling Efficiency in Football Using Expected Booking (xB) Model