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Should we live every day as if it were our last? This question is legitimatewhen we know that Pierre-Simon de Laplace, in 1814, estimated the probabilitythat the Sun would rise again the next day at 0.45. In this article, weexplain in great detail the reasoning and calculations that lead to thissurprising result.

Le Soleil se l\`evera-t-il demain ?