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The code-capacity threshold of a scalable quantum error correcting stabilizercode can be expressed as a thermodynamic phase transition of a correspondingIsing model with random bond-disorder. Here we study the XY and XZZX surfacecodes under phase-biased noise, $p_x=p_y=p_z/(2\eta)$, with $\eta\geq 1/2$, andtotal error rate $p=p_x+p_y+p_z$. By appropriately formulating the boundaryconditions, in the rotated code geometry, we find exact solutions at a specialdisordered point, $p=\frac{1+\eta^{-1}}{2+\eta^{-1}}\gtrsim 0.5$, for arbitraryodd code-distance $d$. The total logical failure rate is given by$P_{f}=\frac{3}{4}-\frac{1}{4}e^{-2d_Z\,\text{artanh}(1/2\eta)}$, where$d_{Z}=d^2$ and $d$ for the two codes respectively, is the effective codedistance for pure phase-flip noise. The large finite size corrections for$d_Z<\eta$ make threshold extractions, using the total logical failure rate formoderate code-distances, unreliable. We show that independently estimatingthresholds for the $X_L$ (phase-flip), $Y_L$, and $Z_L$ (bit-flip) logicalfailure rates can give a more confident threshold estimate. Using this methodfor the XZZX model with a tensor-network based decoder we find that thethresholds converge with code distance to a single value at moderate bias($\eta=30, 100$), corresponding to an error rate above the hashing bound. Incontrast, for larger bias the thresholds do not converge for practicallymaximum-likelihood-decodable code distances (up to $d\approx 100$), leaving alarge uncertainty in the precise threshold value.

Exact results on finite size corrections for surface codes tailored to biased noise