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Most of the world still lacks access to sufficient quantities of all foodgroups needed for an active and healthy life. This study traces historical andprojected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new HealthyDiet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the costand affordability of healthy diets worldwide. We use HDB as a standard tomeasure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances,finding substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment withdietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, andlegumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animalsource foods. Projections show that additional investments in the supply ofagricultural products would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy whereshortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments toincrease purchasing power and demand for under-consumed food groups especiallyin low-income countries.

How and where global food supplies fall short of healthy diets: Past trends and future projections, 1961-2020 and 2010-2050