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The natural fluxes of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere from the territory ofRussia in the 21st century have been analyzed using the results of calculationswith the ensemble of global climate models of the international project CMIP6.Estimates of natural CO2 fluxes for Russian regions differ greatly fordifferent models. Their values for the beginning of the 21st century range from-1 to 1 GtC/yr. In the 21st century the differences in model estimates offluxes grow and at the end of the 21st century under the scenario with thelargest anthropogenic impacts SSP5-8.5 are in the range from -2.5 to 2.5GtC/year. Estimates of natural methane emissions to the atmosphere from theterritory of Russia also differ greatly for different models. Present-daymethane emissions are estimated in the range from 10 to 35 MtCH4/year, whilethe growth in the 21st century may reach 300%. Ensemble model calculations showgeneral trends for changes in natural greenhouse gas fluxes. Most CMIP6ensemble models are characterized by a maximum of CO2 uptake by terrestrialecosystems and its further reduction by the end of the 21st century, whilenatural methane emissions to the atmosphere for all models and scenarios ofanthropogenic forcing grow throughout the 21st century. The cumulativetemperature potential of natural CO2 fluxes on the territory of Russia in the21st century is estimated, depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impacts,from -0.3 to 0.1 K, and the warming-accelerating impact of natural CH4emissions is estimated in the range of 0.03-0.09 K.

Natural sinks and sources of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere of Russian  regions and their contribution to climate change in the 21st century as  calculated with CMIP6 model ensemble