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To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the firstGlobal Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developingemission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledgeswith unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6) degree Cby 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-centurynet-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developedcountries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitiousimplementation of the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Ouranalysis further shows that overshooting 1.5 degree C is unavoidable, even withsupplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need forstrategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards1.5 degree C.

Transparent framework to assess the revision of climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake