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Bark beetles are significant forest pests, with some species capable ofcausing widespread tree mortality. Among these, the mountain pine beetle (MPB)stands out for its exceptionally destructive outbreak in the 2000s. We use MPBas a case study to explore the concept of =excitable dynamics, where ephemeralperturbations produce large excursions from equilibrium. Ourempirically-calibrated model of reveals five features of MPB biology: standdensity-dependent dispersal, an Allee effect, time-scale separation betweenbeetle and tree life cycles, tree size-dependent fecundity, and a large-treepreference. The first three features explain MPB's characteristic boom-bustdynamics, while the latter two explain outbreak magnitude. Other bark beetleslack one or more of these traits, partially explaining their generally lowerimpact. However, predicting bark beetle impact requires consideration of bothlife history and landscape factors: total damage increases linearly withhost-tree biomass, but this relationship holds only for irruptive (i.e.,excitable) beetle species. We distill our findings into a minimal mechanisticmodel that captures the essence of irruptive bark beetle dynamics. This modelfirmly establishes MPB as one of the first empirical examples of excitabledynamics in ecology.

Explaining excitable population dynamics in bark beetles: From life history to large, episodic outbreaks