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During the COVID-19 pandemic, a large variance of incidence rates on locallevel, e.g. cities and districts, within one country has been observed, whilethe same non-pharmaceutical measures have been taken to control the spread ofthe virus. This variance in incidence rates triggered the question, if thespread of incidence rates can be explained only by statistical processes andthe local population statistics or if indeed other factors, e.g. localinformation campaigns, have to be considered. Within this paper we study theexpected spread of incidence rates in the German State of Rhineland Palatinateduring the second COVID-19 wave using an agent based simulation and find thatthe spread of incidence rates can be solely explained by population statisticsand further statical effects.

Why a Mayor cannot Change the Course of a Pandemic -- An agent-based Study on the Covid Spread on Local Level in Germany