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Societal change is often driven by shifts in public opinion. As citizensevolve in their norms, beliefs, and values, public policies change too. Whiletraditional opinion polling and surveys can outline the broad strokes ofwhether public opinion on a particular topic is changing, they usually cannotcapture the full multi-dimensional richness and diversity of opinion present ina large heterogeneous population. However, an increasing fraction of publicdiscourse about public policy issues is now occurring on online platforms,which presents an opportunity to measure public opinion change at aqualitatively different scale of resolution and context.  In this paper, we present a conceptual model of observed opinion change ononline platforms and apply it to study public discourse on Universal BasicIncome (UBI) on Reddit throughout its history. UBI is a periodic,no-strings-attached cash payment given to every citizen of a population. Westudy UBI as it is a clearly-defined policy proposal that has recentlyexperienced a surge of interest through trends like automation and events likethe COVID-19 pandemic. We find that overall stance towards UBI on Redditsignificantly declined until mid-2019, when this historical trend suddenlyreversed and Reddit became substantially more supportive. Using our model, wefind the most significant drivers of this overall stance change were shiftswithin different user cohorts, within communities that represented similaraffluence levels, and within communities that represented similar partisanleanings. Our method identifies nuanced social drivers of opinion change in thelarge-scale public discourse that now regularly occurs online, and could beapplied to a broad set of other important issues and policies.

Capturing Dynamics in Online Public Discourse: A Case Study of Universal Basic Income Discussions on Reddit