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Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecasttrends and complex events. Despite the large body of research oncrowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platformshave never been directly compared to other forecasting methods. In thisanalysis, exchange rate crowd-predictions made on Metaculus are compared topredictions made by the random-walk, a statistical model considered extremelyhard-to-beat. The random-walk provides less erroneous forecasts, but thecrowd-prediction does very well. By using the random-walk as a benchmark, thisanalysis provides a rare glimpse into the forecasting skill displayed on openonline crowd-prediction platforms.

Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts