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This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at thenational level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework thatintegrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and RepresentativeConcentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario,encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a modelcapable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamicunderstanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paperdetails the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through afocused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, andunderscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic andclimatic factors in national food security assessments.

Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia