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The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) has recently spread from itsnative range to several other countries and forecasts predict that it maybecome a global invasive pest. In particular, since its confirmed presence inthe United States in 2014 it has established itself as a major invasive pest inthe Mid-Atlantic region where it is damaging both naturally occurring andcommercially important farmed plants. Quarantine zones have been introduced tocontain the infestation, but the spread to new areas continues. At present thepathways and drivers of spread are not well-understood. In particular, severalhuman activity related factors have been proposed to contribute to the spread;however, which features of the current spread can be attributed to thesefactors remains unclear. Here we collect county level data on infestationstatus and four human activity related factors and use statistical methods todetermine whether there is evidence for an association between the factors andinfestation. Then we construct a mechanistic network model based on the factorsfound to be associated with infestation and use it to simulate local spread. Wefind that the model reproduces key features of the spread 2014 to 2021. Inparticular, the growth of the main infestation region and the opening of spreadcorridors in the westward and southwestern directions is consistent with dataand the model accurately forecasts the correct infestation status at the countylevel in 2021 with $81\%$ accuracy. We then use the model to forecast thespread up to 2025 in a larger region. Given that this model is based on a fewhuman activity related factors that can be targeted, it may prove useful ininforming management and further modeling efforts related to the currentspotted lanternfly infestation in the US and potentially for current and futureinvasions elsewhere globally.

Modeling human activity-related spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) in the US