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A new index for high-impact weather forecasting is introduced and assessed incomparison with the well-established extreme forecast index (EFI). Two otherensemble summary statistics are also included in this comparison study: theshift-of-tail and a standardised ensemble mean anomaly. All these forecasts arebased on the same ingredients: the ensemble forecast run at the European Centrefor Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the corresponding model climatologyderived from a set of reforecasts. The new index emerges from recentdevelopments in forecast verification of extreme events: it is derived as aconsistent forecast with the diagonal score, a weighted version of thecontinuous ranked probability score targetting high-impact events. In thisstudy, we emphasise the importance of forecast discretisation for communicationpurposes and decision-making. A forecast is actionable in the situation where auser can decide to take action when a threshold is exceeded by the forecast.Forecast verification is performed to assess both the potential skill of thedifferent indices as well as their specific skill as actionable forecasts.Among the investigated actionable forecasts, the new proposed indexdemonstrates the strongest discrimination power, in particular at longer leadtimes, paving the way for seamless predictions of high-impact weather acrosstime ranges.

Seamless prediction of high-impact weather events: a comparison of actionable forecasts