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Offshore wind power in the North Sea is considered a main pillar in Europe'sfuture energy system. A key challenge lies in determining the optimal spatialcapacity allocation of offshore wind parks in combination with the dimensioningand layout of the connecting high-voltage direct current grid infrastructure.To determine economically cost optimal configurations, we apply an integratedcapacity and transmission expansion problem within a pan-European electricitymarket and transmission grid model with a high spatial and temporalgranularity. By conducting scenario analysis for the year 2030 with a graduallyincreasing CO2 price, possible offshore expansion paths are derived andpresented. Special emphasis is laid on the effects of weather uncertainty byincorporating data from 21 historical weather years in the analysis. Two keyfindings are (i) an expansion in addition to the existing offshore windcapacity of 0 GW (136 EUR/tCO2), 12 GW (159 EUR/tCO2) and 30 GW (186 EUR/tCO2)dependent on the underlying CO2 price. (ii) A strong sensitivity of the resultstowards the underlying weather data highlighting the importance ofincorporating multiple weather years.

Optimizing the Generation and Transmission Capacity of Offshore Wind Parks under Weather Uncertainty