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The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the comingdecades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement.In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increasesignificantly in the European energy mix. The most extreme fluctuations of theproduction at all time scales need to be taken into account in the design ofthe power system. In particular, extreme long-lasting low wind energyproduction events constitute a specific challenge, as most flexibilitysolutions do not apply at time scales beyond a few days. However, theprobability and amplitude of such events has to a large extent eludedquantitative study so far due to lack of sufficiently long data. In thisletter, using a 1000-year climate simulation, we study rare events of windenergy production that last from a few weeks to a few months over theJanuary-February period, at the scale of a continent (Europe) and a country(France). The results show that the fluctuations of the capacity factor overEurope exhibit nearly Gaussian statistics at all time scales. A similar resultholds over France for events longer than about two weeks and return times up toa few decades. In that case, the return time curves follow a universal curve.Furthermore, a simple Gaussian process with the same covariance structure asthe data gives good estimates of the amplitude of the most extreme events. Thismethod allows to estimate return times for rare events from shorter but moreaccurate data sources. We demonstrate this possibility with reanalysis data.

Assessing the Probability of Extremely Low Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales